张峰, 田康生. 预警卫星对弹道导弹主动段状态估计算法[J]. 红外与激光工程, 2013, 42(7): 1912-1922.
引用本文: 张峰, 田康生. 预警卫星对弹道导弹主动段状态估计算法[J]. 红外与激光工程, 2013, 42(7): 1912-1922.
Zhang Feng, Tian Kangsheng. Estimation algorithm of boost-phase ballistic missile state from satellite observations[J]. Infrared and Laser Engineering, 2013, 42(7): 1912-1922.
Citation: Zhang Feng, Tian Kangsheng. Estimation algorithm of boost-phase ballistic missile state from satellite observations[J]. Infrared and Laser Engineering, 2013, 42(7): 1912-1922.

预警卫星对弹道导弹主动段状态估计算法

Estimation algorithm of boost-phase ballistic missile state from satellite observations

  • 摘要: 主动段运动状态估计是导弹防御中重要内容,估计得到的状态及其协方差信息可用来引导地基雷达截获目标。在预警卫星观测背景下,该问题是非线性最小二乘求解问题。建立了基于主动段净加速度模板的运动模型和预警卫星测量模型,针对预警卫星对弹道导弹主动段观测弱、先验信息掌握少问题,提出了基于Levenberg-Marquardt算法的最大似然(ML)估计方法来得到主动段状态估计及其协方差。特别地,给出了先验信息(发射时间、主动段净加速度模板)获得与否的三种具体情况,详细推导了在这三种情况下的运动状态估计及其统计特性,进一步考察了算法的适用范围。最后,对算法进行了Monte-Carlo仿真研究,仿真结果表明:三种情况下位置和速度误差都接近于CRLB限,验证了估计算法的一致性和有效性。

     

    Abstract: The state estimation for boost phase is an important issue in the missile defense program, both the target state estimate and the associated error covariance are cuing information for radar in BMD program. In the condition of the space-based observations, the state estimation is the solution of the nonlinear LSE problem. Firstly, the dynamic model for the boost phase based on the net acceleration profile was established. The major difficulties of this problem include the ill-conditioning of the estimation problem due to poor observability of the target motion via LOS measurements, the estimation of the unknown launch time, and the incorporation of inaccurate target thrust profiles to model the target dynamics during the boost phase. Considering the complications mentioned above, a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that provides both the target state estimate and the associated error covariance was presented. Specially, the explicit derivation of the state estimation under three cases were deduced, and its application conditions were illuminated. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation studies on two typical scenarios were performed. The results indicate that the estimated errors are closed to the CRLB, thus illustrating that the proposed estimator is efficient.

     

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