基于DSP导弹预警系统的导弹弹道确定及落点预报精度分析
Impact-point precision analysis of DSP ballistic missile early warning system
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摘要: 系统分析了DSP导弹预警系统的工作流程,研究了DSP导弹预警熊对战略导弹的弹道确定和落点预报原理。在此基础上,构建了DSP系统在双星凝视跟踪模式下的观测模型,并根据战略导弹主动段动力学模型特性和自由端导弹动力学方程,构建了导弹实时弹道确定中的简化状态模型和落点预报模型。在观测模型和状态模型基础上,提出了双星观测模式下的弹道导弹主动段实时弹道确定方法。基于UKF非线性滤波技术,通过随机采样点逼近非线性观测方程和导弹主动段,在不必求解雅克比矩阵的情况下,实现了DSP导弹防御系统对战略导弹主动段的实时弹道确定和实时落点预报功能。最后,基于STK仿真实现了DSP导弹预警的全过程,仿真结果表明,双星观测模式下,DSP导弹预警系统对战略导弹的落点预警精度能达到10~50 km,完全满足战术需求。Abstract: The technological process of guided missile defense systems(DSP) was analyzed, and the impact-point prediction and orbit determination of strategic missile theory based DSP satellite were proposed. Thus, with the mode of two satellites spaced, the measurement model of DSP satellite was put forward. In order to calculate the orbit of the missile, the dynamic model with multi-parameters of the powered phase and free section of the missile were created. For simplifying the calculation, the reduced dynamic model of missile was put forward in order to reconstruct the whole simulation of ballistic missile early warning system, which was ballistic determination and the impact-point prediction. Then the UKF filter algorithm was used to calculate the position and velocity of missile on real time. Finally, the simulation experiment based on STK was generated, and the results show that the impact-point prediction precision can be 10-50 km, which can satisfy the basic military requirement.
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